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Blue
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 2:08 pm 
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Posts: 7760
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:53 pm
Location: Out there somewhere... or is it here?
Favorite Cheese: Mozzerella String Cheese
Day 15, 0 matches, 18.5k

0: 9 (115,375)
2: 6 (70,000)
3: 0
4: 0
Gift Boxes: Days 1 & 11
BLB: Day 4

Total: 185,375 NP

High on record: 463,250
Low on record: 453,875

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Siniri
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 3:22 pm 
Way Beyond Godly
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Posts: 8326
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:32 pm
Location: Georgia
Gender: Female
Day 15: matched 3, 19.5k

Matched:
0: 6 (69,875)
2: 8 (100,000)
3: 1 (19.500)
4: 0
Gift Boxes: 1 (Days 8, 11)
RLB: Day 9
Total: 189,375 NP

"Record" high: 461,750
"Record" low: 453,750

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Pickles
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 1:38 am 
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Posts: 8260
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:46 am
Location: Dodging Giant Ice-Cream Scoops
Gender: Female
Day 15: No matches, 18.5k

0: 9 (120,375)
2: 4 (47,000)
3: 2 (23,000)
4: 0
Gift boxes: 1
BLB: Day 7

High on record: 458,375
Low on record: 455,750

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Blue
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 4:15 am 
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Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:53 pm
Location: Out there somewhere... or is it here?
Favorite Cheese: Mozzerella String Cheese
Spare time fun...

What is the lowest possible low?

What is the highest possible high?

Lowest Low:
No matches for 21 days and 2 matches on days 5, 12 and 19, effectively negating the BLB bonus for the entire 25 day period. Day 25 does not matter: 446,875


Highest High:
Match 4 on 21 days days, except for days 8, 16 and 24 in which you match zero and get the BLB. Day 25 does not matter: 497,500


Please feel free to double check my work and assumptions :)

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Siniri
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 1:56 pm 
Way Beyond Godly
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Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:32 pm
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Blue, I know JN's guide says you can get a RLB once per week, but I've only ever gotten one per round, and you don't necessarily get it on the first day with no matches; it's random (I've gotten it on day 1 and as late as day 10 - maybe later - regardless of how many days with no matches I've had overall). Given my observations, what if you got no matches on days 1-23 and 2 matches on day 24 (so no RLB)? That would give you 445,875 as the lowest possible low. Likewise, 495,500 is the highest possible total if you can only get the RLB once (on day 8 ). Of course, the probability that you get either of these is approximately 1 in 300 trillion (give or take a factor for the probability of getting RLB vs. regular no matches).

Day 16: matched 0, 18.5k

Matched:
0: 7 (88,375)
2: 8 (100,000)
3: 1 (19.500)
4: 0
Gift Boxes: 1 (Days 8, 11)
RLB: Day 9
Total: 207,875 NP

"Record" high: 461,750
"Record" low: 453,750

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Blue graffitied on my signature... But it made me laugh, so it's all good!
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Blue
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 2:02 pm 
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Posts: 7760
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:53 pm
Location: Out there somewhere... or is it here?
Favorite Cheese: Mozzerella String Cheese
Day 16, 0 matches, 18.5k

0: 10 (133,875)
2: 6 (70,000)
3: 0
4: 0
Gift Boxes: Days 1 & 11
BLB: Day 4

Total: 203,875 NP

High on record: 463,250
Low on record: 453,875

I thought about that, Siniri. I may need to go back through this thread to see if any of us received a BLB more than once per round. I agree with your thought that one might never get a BLB at all, which would then lower my minimum estimate by 1,500, or 445,375 as the lowest possible low. I definitely agree that the odds of achieving either of these extreme scores is next to zero. The next question is... what is the average and standard deviation of the total payout? I imagine that it is skewed towards the low end.

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Pickles
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 10:14 am 
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Posts: 8260
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:46 am
Location: Dodging Giant Ice-Cream Scoops
Gender: Female
Day 16: No matches, 18.5k

0: 10 (138,875)
2: 4 (47,000)
3: 2 (23,000)
4: 0
Gift boxes: 1
BLB: Day 7

High on record: 458,375
Low on record: 455,750

Day 17: Match 2, 19k + gift box

0: 10 (138,875)
2: 5 (66,000)
3: 2 (23,000)
4: 0
Gift boxes: 2
BLB: Day 7

High on record: 458,375
Low on record: 455,750

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Find me at WGF, where werewolf rocks!
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Blue
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 1:44 pm 
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Posts: 7760
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:53 pm
Location: Out there somewhere... or is it here?
Favorite Cheese: Mozzerella String Cheese
Day 17, 0 matches, 18.5k

0: 11 (152,375)
2: 6 (70,000)
3: 0
4: 0
Gift Boxes: Days 1 & 11
BLB: Day 4

Total: 222,375 NP

High on record: 463,250
Low on record: 453,875

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Siniri
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 4:00 pm 
Way Beyond Godly
Way Beyond Godly
User avatar

Posts: 8326
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:32 pm
Location: Georgia
Gender: Female
Day 17: matched 0, 18.5k

Matched:
0: 8 (106,875)
2: 8 (100,000)
3: 1 (19.500)
4: 0
Gift Boxes: 1 (Days 8, 11)
RLB: Day 9
Total: 226,375 NP

"Record" high: 461,750
"Record" low: 453,750

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Blue graffitied on my signature... But it made me laugh, so it's all good!
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Blue
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 2:58 pm 
Administrator
Administrator
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Posts: 7760
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:53 pm
Location: Out there somewhere... or is it here?
Favorite Cheese: Mozzerella String Cheese
Day 18, 2 Matches, 19k

0: 11 (152,375)
2: 7 (89,000)
3: 0
4: 0
Gift Boxes: Days 1 & 11
BLB: Day 4

Total: 241,375 NP

High on record: 463,250
Low on record: 453,875

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Pickles
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 3:37 pm 
Honorary Member
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Posts: 8260
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:46 am
Location: Dodging Giant Ice-Cream Scoops
Gender: Female
Day 18: Match 2, 19k

0: 10 (138,875)
2: 6 (85,000)
3: 2 (23,000)
4: 0
Gift boxes: 2
BLB: Day 7

High on record: 458,375
Low on record: 455,750

Home and exhausted, but managed somehow to not miss a day.

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Find me at WGF, where werewolf rocks!
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Siniri
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2018 3:22 am 
Way Beyond Godly
Way Beyond Godly
User avatar

Posts: 8326
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:32 pm
Location: Georgia
Gender: Female
Day 18: matched 0, 18.5k

Matched:
0: 9 (125,375)
2: 8 (100,000)
3: 1 (19,500)
4: 0
Gift Boxes: 1 (Days 8, 11)
RLB: Day 9
Total: 244,875 NP

"Record" high: 461,750
"Record" low: 453,750

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Blue graffitied on my signature... But it made me laugh, so it's all good!
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Blue
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2018 7:27 am 
Administrator
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Posts: 7760
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 6:53 pm
Location: Out there somewhere... or is it here?
Favorite Cheese: Mozzerella String Cheese
Day 19, 2 Matches, 19k

0: 11 (152,375)
2: 8 (108,000)
3: 0
4: 0
Gift Boxes: Days 1 & 11
BLB: Day 4

Total: 260,375 NP

High on record: 463,250
Low on record: 453,875[/quote]

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Pickles
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2018 5:18 pm 
Honorary Member
Honorary Member
User avatar

Posts: 8260
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:46 am
Location: Dodging Giant Ice-Cream Scoops
Gender: Female
Day 19: Match 3, 19.5k

0: 10 (138,875)
2: 6 (85,000)
3: 3 (42,500)
4: 0
Gift boxes: 2
BLB: Day 7

High on record: 458,375
Low on record: 455,750

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Set by KiTeNcHeTu!
Find me at WGF, where werewolf rocks!
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Siniri
 Post subject: Re: Trudy's Surprise (Slot Machine)! [Split 4 ever]
PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 1:13 pm 
Way Beyond Godly
Way Beyond Godly
User avatar

Posts: 8326
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:32 pm
Location: Georgia
Gender: Female
Day 19: matched 0, 18.5k

Matched:
0: 10 (143,875)
2: 8 (100,000)
3: 1 (19,500)
4: 0
Gift Boxes: 1 (Days 8, 11)
RLB: Day 9
Total: 263,375 NP

"Record" high: 461,750
"Record" low: 453,750

I'd like to get off the no-matches broken record train now, please. Then again, I guess I'm testing JN's guide's supposition about how RLB's work...

Day 20: matched 0, 18.5k

Matched:
0: 11 (162,375)
2: 8 (100,000)
3: 1 (19,500)
4: 0
Gift Boxes: 1 (Days 8, 11)
RLB: Day 9
Total: 281,875 NP

"Record" high: 461,750
"Record" low: 453,750

Well, that's five days in a row now of 0 matches. Getting close to testing whether you can get two RLB's.

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