Food Club [Split 2]

[Pickles]

Mostly following, with a couple safeties pulled up.

Fran x (Goo, Tail)
Buck x (Luck, Tail)
Fair x Goo
Buck x (Puff; Orvinn) x Goo
Fran x Puff x Goo
Fran x (Fed, Ed) x Luck

[Siniri]

20:10

Glad I doubled my money, but a bit miffed my system had me go easy on the safeties yesterday (2 upsets in the base) and heavy on them today (a 2sday)... Trying to focus on what I did earn today instead of remembering yesterday or thinking about what could have been.

[Pickles]

Meh. Not too happy about these, but here they are:

(Fed, Bonnie, Ned) x Goo x Scurvy x Buck
(Bonnie, Ned) x Goo x Buck
Fed x Goo x (Ed, Luck) x Buck
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x Fair
(Squire, Young) x Buck

Today just feels like a trap, even with the Goo-less safeties...

[Siniri]

P(16:10-168:10): 49%
EV: 2.25-3.71

Bets:
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x Buck x (Tail, Black)
Bonnie x Goo x Scurvy x Buck x Tail
Fed x Goo x Luck x Buck x Tail
Fed x Goo x Scurvy x Fair x Tail
Fed x Goo x Ed x Buck
(Fed, Bonnie) x Goo x (Scurvy, Luck) x Buck

I can't resist these risky sets on days like today, even though I seem to bust more often than the P says.

Edit: 48:10. I nearly forgot to place my bets (started placing them at 2:51pm NST; the round has been ending around 2:56pm). I'm really glad I got them in on time!

[Siniri]

New bets:
P(16:10-72:10): 55%
EV: 1.06-1.82

Bets:
Bonnie x Scurvy x (Puff, Black, Capn)
Fed x Scurvy x (Black, Capn)
Scurvy x Black
Bonnie x Scurvy x Black x (all in HC)

[Pickles]

Playing a little on the risky side today:

Bonnie x Fair
Scurvy x Black x Ed
Bonnie x Scurvy x (All in TI; All in HC)

[Siniri]

Busted thanks to the Ned x Capn combo.

P(24:10-84:10): 56%
EV: 2.52-3.19

Bets:
Fran x Goo x (Tail, Ed, Young) x Ned
Fran x Goo x Ed x (Capn, Puff)
(Fed, Bonnie) x Goo x Ed x Ned
Goo x Tail x Capn
Goo x Ed x (Fran; Orvinn)

You could leave Fran off the TI and HH safeties to increase the overall P(win).

Last edited by Siniri on Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Pickles]

Also busted. Sigh.

Today seems pretty risky.

Fran x Goo x Ed x (Capn, Puff, Ned)
Fran x Goo x Orvinn
Fran x Goo x (Tail, Young)
Fran x Ed x (Capn, Orvinn)
(Bonnie, Fed) x Goo x Ed x Ned

ETA: Busted. I had this feeling this was going to be a multiple-upset day. 2 6:1's and a 13:1 definitely mess things up. Meh.

[Siniri]

Another bust. December's full of rust.

P(14:10-52:10): 78%
EV: 1.40-1.79

Bets:
(Scurvy, Stripe, Fair) x Goo
Buck x Fed
Buck x Goo x (all in HC; Ed, Luck)

Relatively standard, safe set. Meh.

Last edited by Siniri on Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Pickles]

Yeah, I'm not thrilled with December so far. Usually by around the 15th, I've at least broken even for the month, but I'm still 1.6 mil in the hole, assuming I bet every day left in the month...which I may or may not, depending on how crazy it ends up being. But still...

Not really thrilled with today's. Will probably bust, because I'm guessing it'll end up being a Fran/Fed upset, but since I couldn't pick one, I went with Squire. (Yeah, how's that for logic?) Here we go:

(Stripe, Scurvy, Fair) x Goo
(All in Lagoon) x Goo x Puff
Stuff x Buck x Goo
(Buck, Scurvy) x Squire

[Siniri]

24:10

I'm at 274:180 for the month (52% net). About half the profit I usually get.

Is Mr. P still betting? If so, has his system continued to be as lucky as it first seemed?

New bets:
P(24:10-52:10): 55%
EV: 1.20-2.29

Bets:
(Ed, Tail) x Goo x (Scurvy, Fed)
Tail x (Black, Luck) x Scurvy
Tail x Goo x (Scurvy, Fed) x (Bonnie, Fair)

[Pickles]

Mr. P has hardly had time at the computer lately. I only get bets in when the kids are all down for naps, which is still dicey sometimes.

Bleh. System wants me to 10-bet Goo and Scurvy. Don't think so.

(All in SW) x Goo x Scurvy
(Ed, Tail) x Goo x Scurvy x Fair
Tail x (Black, Luck) x Scurvy
Ed x (Black, Luck)

ETA: FINALLY!!! A decent win!! 96:10!!
I guess 10-betting Goo and Scurvy wasn't such a bad idea today, but the Fair bet was still not in the top 10 (it was #21, a few after a similar one with Fran instead of Fair. Fair's +4 food boost is what had me lean towards him over Bonnie, which, had I followed the system, I'd've used instead).

I'm still not breaking even for the month, but that sure helped a heap!

Mr. P had time to bet today, and had 4 winning bets today, nailing the two that I did, plus Ed x Goo and Ed x Goo x Fair, with a win of 144:10!

[Siniri]

Weird. When I placed my bets, the system technically wanted me to bet heavily on Ed, but I spread myself a bit thin trying to get my overall P(win) over 50%. *sigh* Otherwise, I'd have gotten the same thing as P.

Still, 24:10 isn't bad.

[Pickles]

I feel like I should've covered Capn, but...I didn't. Modified as Black looks pretty strong, so I pulled safeties for him up from the 20's and 30's on my list.

(Stripe, Luck, Young) x Black
(Goo, Fed; Squire; Tail) x Young x Scurvy
(Peg, Luck, Stripe) x Scurvy

[Siniri]

P(10:10-45:10): 85%
EV: 0.97-1.59

Bets:
(Stripe, Luck, Peg) x Scurvy
(Stripe, Young) x Black
Young x Scurvy x (Goo, Fed; HC - Orvinn)

Edit: 24:10 for the third day in a row. I'm totally fine with that! Finally guaranteed to break even for the month even if I were to bust for the rest of it (though of course I'd rather keep up this 24:10 streak...).