Lost Desert Plot Discussion #39 (Summary in First Post)

[kin]

Fer is in the river library. The list of were all the scrolls are is listed below the pictures of the library. I missed them too.

ooops sorry, i missed it because there is so much other info on that post. thank you anyway, much appreciated

[rugrat0ne]

I decided to do a little math. I picked a conservative number of 20 for the average number of handsful of sand-- last I'd seen the highest number of piles carried by someone was 60 (though there was quite enough time after for that to have changed significantly), but figured to err towards the assumption that more people had slower pets. So 20 seemed a safe bet.

I grabbed a grand total of 12 handfuls, lol. But if there were people managing 60 or more, it might even out at a higher number *shrug*

penny, penny (my two cents)

rugs

[zalensia]

I only managed to collect 24 piles of sand in total. Going on a rough average of 20 ish that means there was only about 6000 players digging the actual sand.

This is a quote from an article by TNT:

As of June 2005, Neopets has registered more than 92 million accounts worldwide. Due to the multiple accounts that users create for a variety of reasons, this figure represents approximately 30 million individuals (by Company estimates).

Obviously not all of them are going to even dig 1 handful of sand lol but going by it I think it might be a lot more than 104,034 people digging one pile of sand. That is what makes me think the number is a clue for something else along with the 15 minute break thing.

[Gitanesabr]

I have been to 9 of the clue rooms and still haven't found my scroll yet. I'm starting to get really worried I'll never find it and the plot will be over.

Just to confirm: are there 12 coloured shapes of my clue? That would leave me with 3 more possible doors to look behind.

[Faerie_girl]

any new clues or things that need to be checked out???

[jrtman]

I thought the number looked rather small considering the efforts folks were puting forth.

I decided to do a little math. I picked a conservative number of 20 for the average number of handsful of sand-- last I'd seen the highest number of piles carried by someone was 60 (though there was quite enough time after for that to have changed significantly), but figured to err towards the assumption that more people had slower pets. So 20 seemed a safe bet.

I took this and divided 104,034 by it and got ~5202 (5201.7). So with a conservative number of piles carried away, we only had 5200 people carrying? From all around the world? I found that difficult to believe (though it's feasable, I'm a skeptic).

I don't honestly know if my conservative number was too high, but if it's too low, that number of folks is even lower!

Which really leads me to two conclusions about 104,034: it's arbitrary or it's a clue.

Instead of whipping a number off the top of our heads let's do some averages:

3 hour wait time: 7 average
2.5 hour wait time: 10 average
2 hour wait time: 19 average
1.5 hour wait time: 33 average
1 hour wait time: 41 average
-------------------------------------------
7 + 10 + 19 + 33 + 41 / 5 = 22 average

Okay, so now we know a safe estimate is that the average player carried away 22 handfuls of sand during the repository dig.

104,034 / 22 = 4728 total people (rounded off).

Since only those who have translated their tablet, found their statue and read the correct scroll could participate in the dig this is a very believable number.

Also, let's not forget that roughly 39% of the people who would have been able to dig couldn't figure out the correct phrase or weren't online / quit participating in the plot due to the long wait times.

4728 * 39% = 1844 (rounded off)
4728 + 1844 = 6572 total players

To me 4,728 total diggers and 6,572 total players who have completed all the steps seems to be an acurate number, especially since there are still a lot of people who are still getting the tablet pieces.

I know we tend to think of these numbers in the millions, but we've seen it over and over that very few people have the ability to map their temple or follow clues even when people tell them how.

[Cranberry]

i had a three-hour wait time, only collected sand every now and then, and walked away with 14 piles. i consider my sand count to be amongst the lower numbers. seeing as so many people collected 40 or more, i'd say that your estimate might even be a little low! so i'd guess that there were even fewer diggers, based on that number.

which is why i think the number is a clue. the rest of the clue may not be released yet, however. you know how TNT is.

Yeah, that's why I wanted to go with an estimate leaning towards a lower number of piles. I figured it would give me a reasonable upper bound.

And considering the total number of piles, as well as the rough upper bound on how many folks contributed (whether carrying 1 pile or 100), seemed too small, I ruled out it being a genuine number of how many piles were /actually/ collected by players.

I don't know, you guys. Look at the Lenny Conundrum. It often seems like everyone and their gelert is entering that (and getting the correct answer when it's blabbed on the Neoboards), and yet when winners are announced in the news, it's rarely more than a few thousand people getting it right. Look at the last one:

A new Lenny Conundrum competition has begun. The answer to last week's was 24,192 days. 2,304 people guessed the correct answer earning themselves 869 NP each.

Now, probably quite a few more people than that actually enter and just don't win, but still. The LC is open all week, and it takes FAR less time to enter an answer there than to A) Find your faerie statue (which often involves mapping your tomb, a time-consuming process), B) Find the correct library and read your correct scroll, and C) Visit the repository regularly and collect 10-15+ piles of sand. My pet is in the third range of agility and I still only collected 18 piles, so I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of diggers got less than 10 (especially considering many players would be in school or at work on the weekdays and wouldn't be able to dig as much). Remember, here at PPT, almost everyone is a hardcore Neopets player. Our results are going to be much higher than the average.

Also, look at the Curse of Maraqua stats. Only 54,791 pirates and 202,248 Maraquans signed up. That's only 257,039 people participating in the events (and that does seem to be warriors and support added together). That went on for a long time -- and to qualify, people only had to fight one battle or do one support task, not complete a time-consuming puzzle plot.

I think TNT's number could be accurate... although I do hope it's a clue, because right now, I'm stuck.

Last edited by Cranberry on Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.

[supRNurs]

I have been to 9 of the clue rooms and still haven't found my scroll yet. I'm starting to get really worried I'll never find it and the plot will be over.

Just to confirm: are there 12 coloured shapes of my clue? That would leave me with 3 more possible doors to look behind.

Please rephrase this a little and maybe we can help you. What are you calling "clue rooms?" Scrolls are located in the libraries - 3 special looking doors. You can find images of them and a list of which scrolls are behind which door in the first post. If you are trying to find your statue, and know which color and shape of door to look behind, and have tried 9 of the 12, then you are on the right track - just keep going. It took me all 12 to find mine.

Instead of whipping a number off the top of our heads let's do some averages:

3 hour wait time: 7 average
2.5 hour wait time: 10 average
2 hour wait time: 19 average
1.5 hour wait time: 33 average
1 hour wait time: 41 average
-------------------------------------------
7 + 10 + 19 + 33 + 41 / 5 = 22 average

Okay, so now we know a safe estimate is that the average player carried away 22 handfuls of sand during the repository dig.

How did you arrive at those figures? (7 average for 3 hr wait, etc.) Did you also take into account that most people wouldn't be online every hour, 2 hours, etc. for the entire 24 hours of each day? I mean, did you allow time for work, sleep, eating, school, ... hurricanes? LOL

Last edited by supRNurs on Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Chriso999]

I have to say that I haven't finished my tablet but it still let me have sand.

[Hidinger]

I thought the number looked rather small considering the efforts folks were puting forth.

I decided to do a little math. I picked a conservative number of 20 for the average number of handsful of sand-- last I'd seen the highest number of piles carried by someone was 60 (though there was quite enough time after for that to have changed significantly), but figured to err towards the assumption that more people had slower pets. So 20 seemed a safe bet.

I took this and divided 104,034 by it and got ~5202 (5201.7). So with a conservative number of piles carried away, we only had 5200 people carrying? From all around the world? I found that difficult to believe (though it's feasable, I'm a skeptic).

I don't honestly know if my conservative number was too high, but if it's too low, that number of folks is even lower!

Which really leads me to two conclusions about 104,034: it's arbitrary or it's a clue.

Instead of whipping a number off the top of our heads let's do some averages:

3 hour wait time: 7 average
2.5 hour wait time: 10 average
2 hour wait time: 19 average
1.5 hour wait time: 33 average
1 hour wait time: 41 average
-------------------------------------------
7 + 10 + 19 + 33 + 41 / 5 = 22 average

Okay, so now we know a safe estimate is that the average player carried away 22 handfuls of sand during the repository dig.

104,034 / 22 = 4728 total people (rounded off).

Since only those who have translated their tablet, found their statue and read the correct scroll could participate in the dig this is a very believable number.

Also, let's not forget that roughly 39% of the people who would have been able to dig couldn't figure out the correct phrase or weren't online / quit participating in the plot due to the long wait times.

4728 * 39% = 1844 (rounded off)
4728 + 1844 = 6572 total players

To me 4,728 total diggers and 6,572 total players who have completed all the steps seems to be an acurate number, especially since there are still a lot of people who are still getting the tablet pieces.

I know we tend to think of these numbers in the millions, but we've seen it over and over that very few people have the ability to map their temple or follow clues even when people tell them how.

This seems totally accurate in the fact that if you didn't take the time to map the tomb you could still be on your third piece or so. Not to mention they didn't release the avatar too long ago. Some people wouldn't even have considered a "Non-War" (like the old ones) plot until the avatar was known...

[stampsyne]

3 hour wait time: 7 average

I am curious on how this number was reached. I had a 3 hour wait and obtained 20 (and I was late at it because I had to wait 12 hours to re-read my scroll).

[redridnhood]

3 hour wait time: 7 average

I am curious on how this number was reached. I had a 3 hour wait and obtained 20 (and I was late at it because I had to wait 12 hours to re-read my scroll).

i had gotten 6 cus i was busy everytime those three hour were up...and i was late cus of internet was down...and i had reread a scroll

[zalensia]

I have to say that I haven't finished my tablet but it still let me have sand.

But I take it you have found your statue and read the correct scroll?

[Yunamaxieboytanda]

Hi people, I had a theory about a door in the temple leading to the repository as posted earlier in the split by someone (I apoligize in advance to the person as I forgot your name).
I thought that perhaps it might have been the blank door so I went to look, but it has been quashed as I don't have one awe well back to the drawing board...

[Jasujo]

Split.

New thread: http://www.pinkpt.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21001