Pink Poogle Toy Forum

84:10 !!!!
The winning bet was #2 on my list. I though there were too many high-odds ones in my set today, but it paid off!!

P(12:10-40:10): 85%
EV: 1.26-1.52

Bets:
Goo x (all in SW; TI - Ned; Buck, Scurvy)
Black

Blargh. Not a lot of EV to be had today.

Last minute bets, mostly following minus the 2's and 4's bets:

Black
Stuff x Goo x (Fed, Fran; Buck, Scurvy)
(Ed; Tail) x Goo x (Buck, Scurvy)
Stripe x Goo

ETA: Puff busted me. Ah well.

I busted as well. Ugh. The month of giving hasn't been for FC.

Bets:
(Young, Bonnie) x Goo
(Luck, Young) x Buck
(all in SW; Fran, Scurvy) x Luck x Goo

Breaking from following the system; it would have me some heavy emphasis on Young today.

(Young, Bonnie, Fair) x Goo
(Luck, Young) x Buck
(all in SW; Stuff) x Luck x Goo

I had to rush my bets before leaving to catch the Greyhound this morning. While I didn't calculate my overall P(win), it was fairly high... but not high enough given the pirates' meanness lately. Looks like P covered the long-shot dark horse flippin' friggin' funny-businessin' Fairfax, though. Congrats!

Now if you would please just actually follow a bit of logic and stop with the ridiculous long shots already, FC... It's still the month of giving, after all.

Yeah, I lucked out and managed a 26:10. It was still in the top 20 on the system, though. I hate having to rush bets, like I had to yesterday.

Tomorrow looks like it's going to be a toss-up. I'll place bets (hopefully) tomorrow early afternoon.

It was bet 104 when I placed my bets. No way would I place one that low unless it looked exceptionally strong. Fair didn't. Oh, well.

Tomorrow will be another rushed day for me. It's about time the streak ended, so maybe I'll get lucky despite the rush.

Edit:
P(16:10-120:10): 51%
EV: 2.59-3.13

Bets:
Buck x Goo x Scurvy x Fed x Ed
Buck x Fran x Scurvy x (Fed; Ed)
Buck x Goo x Tail x (Fed; Ed)
Buck x (Goo, Luck) x Scurvy x Fed
Buck x Goo x Scurvy x Ed
Buck x Fran x (Tail, Scurvy)

Following the system pretty strictly today instead of trying to second-guess anything. Hopefully it works!

Edit 2: Bah humbug. Fourth bust in a row. Thanks to another 13:1 winner. I wish I hadn't gone out of my way to get my bets in these past few days - but with my luck, I'd have missed out on some big wins had I skipped. FC, you really don't need to jump on the "2016 sucks" bandwagon for the last week. You were great most of the year, so let's end it on a high note. Pretty please?

New day, new bets:
P(14:10-80:10): 71%
EV: 1.79-2.34

Bets:
Goo x (Fran, Young)
Goo x Fran x (all in SW; all in TI)

Stuffed and Puffed yesterday.

Bets for today:
Goo x Young
Orvinn x Fran
Goo x Fran x (All in SW; All in TI)

ETA: 44:10 Can't complain!

Tomorrow looks...interesting. Only one with a negative food adjustment, and some with pretty high ones. We'll see when I have time to actually put in bets.

48:10. Doesn't make up for the past 4 days, but it's close. Hopefully we'll finish off the year right!

(Buck, Fran) x Black x (Ned, Goo)
(All in SW) x Ned
Fran x (Goo, Orvinn)

...Yeah, not really counting on much here. Watch it be Buck x Orvinn. Anyways, here's hoping for something at least...

P(8:10-54:10): 87%
EV: 1.12-1.72

Bets:
(Fran, Tail) x (Ned, Goo)
Fran x Fed
Buck x (Ned, Fed)
Buck x (Black, Peg, Bonnie) x Goo

Probably playing too conservatively, but HC is barely positive, so there wasn't much difference in EV. I went for a higher P(win), though most wins will only be worth half as much. Meh.

Edit: Won my max bet of 54:10. Glad I omitted HC! Finished off the month at 546:310 (76% net profit). Far below my average for 2016, but not too far below my long-term average. I hope 2017 is as nice as 2016 was overall (speaking strictly about FC).

Also hit the 54:10. A nice way to finish off the year. I'll post my month's results in a couple days, when I have time to actually go through and calculate it.

Happy New Years!

ETA:
Fed looks super strong, but to me, that screams a trap, so I'm deviating to use 3 bets on safeties on the others.
(Squire, Black, Capn)
(All in Lagoon) x Fed x Goo
Fed x Buck
Fair x (Young, Luck) x Fed