Pink Poogle Toy Forum

P(16:10-120:10): 55%
EV: 3.12-4.63

Bets:
Luck x Scurvy x (Fran, Bonnie) x Buck x Goo
Luck x Scurvy x (all in HC) x Goo
Ned x Scurvy x Buck x Goo
Luck x Tail x Buck x Goo
(Luck, Ned) x Scurvy x Fran x Goo

Days like today are nearly always a trap. Except when they're not, which is why I can never help betting them aggressively.

(The odds must have shifted since P placed her bets... that's the only downfall of my system, because EV is so dependent on the current odds as the best predictor of the closing odds.)

Edit: The only arena I didn't safety (the one with the highest-P pirate) is of course the only one that had an upset, so I busted. It was a trap!

New day, new bets...

P(12:10-30:10): ~80%
EV: 0.85-1.46 (Scurvy moved from 3 to 2; hopefully he moves back)

Bets:
Goo x (TI - Bonnie; all in HC; HH - Fair)

10-betting Gooblah again. Let's hope he took some Bloat-Be-Gone since yesterday.

Busted yesterday. Bets for today:

Peg
Goo x (Scurvy, Buck)
Goo x Tail x (All in HH; HC - Fair)

16:10 thanks to a disadvantageous odds shift. At least it's positive.

Edit:
P(16:10-a bunch): 40%
EV: 2.03-2.80

Bets:
Goo x (Buck, Fed) x Young x Scurvy x Ed
Goo x Buck x Young x Fran x Ed
Goo x Young x (Scurvy; Buck) x (Bonnie, Ed)
Goo x (Fed; Fran) x Young x Ed
Goo x Young x Bonnie

Didn't have enough time to pick a less risky set. Hopefully I win something...

ETA: Won 64:10. Woot!

4:10 yesterday, 64:10 today.

Literally got home 5 minutes before bets went in, didn't have time to do anything except copy Siniri's bets...which payed off beautifully! Thanks, Siniri!

ETA: A bit risky, and not covering as many safeties as I'd like, but....

Fed x (Bonnie, Young) x Stripe
Luck x Goo x Stripe x (Tail; Buck)
Fed x Goo x (Puff, Ed, Stripe) x Tail
Fed x Goo x Stripe x Tail x Buck
Fed x Goo x Stripe x (Scurvy, Ned)

Rushed to get bets in:

P(16:10-104:10): 48%
EV: 2.27-3.06

Bets:
Fed x Goo x Stripe x Tail x (Buck, Fair)
Luck x Goo x Stripe x (Tail; Buck)
Fed x Goo x (Puff, Ed) x Tail
Fed x Goo x Stripe x (Tail, Scurvy, Fran; Buck)

Edit: Busted thanks to Orvinn taking SW. He cost me 48:10 (if Luck had won instead) or 56:10 (if Fed had). Oh, well. Tomorrow's another day.

New day, new bets...

P(12:10-54:10): 88%
EV: 1.44-1.92

Bets:
(Goo, Fran) x (Peg, Orvinn, Fed)
Goo x Fed x (all in HC)

Large P(mediocrity).

Meh. Don't really like what the options are, but here goes:

Fran x (Peg, Orvinn, Fed)
Goo x (Bonnie, Tail) x (Peg, Orvinn, Fed)
Goo x Fed x Buck

12:10 on the safety. Cost me a 28:10 had Goo pulled it off. Oh, well. Managed 635:290 for the month.

12:10 as well. Didn't do nearly as well for the whole month, though.


Today's bets:
Young x Tail x Fed
Goo x (Bonnie, Capn) x Fed
Goo x (Bonnie, Capn) x Buck
Goo x Tail x (Buck, Fran, Luck ) x Fed
Goo x Tail x (Peg; Stripe)

P(12:10-56:10): 57%
EV: 1.29-2.46

Bets:
Goo x Tail x (Buck, Luck, Fran) x Fed
Goo x Tail x (Buck, Fran) x Scurvy
Goo x Tail x (Fed, Stripe, Scurvy)
Goo x (Bonnie, Capn) x Fed

I wanted to cover the Young safety, but there was no room.

Edit: 36:10

36:10 yesterday.

Meh on today. Almost not worth betting.
Stuff
Luck
Goo x (All in SW) x (Buck, Fed)

ETA: 12:10
Better than nothing...

New day, new bets:
P(16:10-32:10): 78%
EV: 1.45-1.55

Bets:
Goo x (Scurvy, Bonnie)
(all in SW) x (Buck, Fed) x Goo

And the form didn't submit... Oops. Had them in relatively early, too. Anyway, I won 16:10.

New day, new bets (for 12/3):

P(24:10-144:10): 50%
EV: 1.80-2.90

Bets:
Buck x (Tail, Fed) x Luck x Goo
Buck x (all in Lagoon) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo
(Young, Ned) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo
(Buck, Young) x Scurvy x Black x Goo

Going a bit risky today, but the odds were too good not to go for it.

Currently, today is a "special" day. With this set of bets, you'll break even at worst. Keep in mind that Fed and Tail are both up; you could lose out some if Tail drops back down to a 4:1.
Fair
Peg
Ed
Goo x (Stuff, Fed, Tail)
Goo x Scurvy x (All in Lagoon)

Will edit in my own bets in a minute.

ETA:
My set for today:
Buck x (Puff; Fed, Tail) x Luck x Goo
Buck x (Stripe, Bonnie, Fran) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo
Buck x Scurvy x Black x Goo
Scurvy x Orvinn x Goo
(Ned, Young) x Scurvy x Luck x Goo

ETA2: Bah. Botched putting them in, and ended up with a Buck x Scurvy x Luck x Goo. Took out the Buck x Puff x Luck x Goo.

ETA3: Busted. Puff, Tail, and Black. I had a Buck x Tail x Black x Goo as bet #15. Ah well.