Food Club

[Blue]

Yep. 24:10. Nice!

[Pickles]

Early bets today.
Similar with one minor change:
Fed x Goo
Buck x Bonnie
Buck x Goo x (All in SW, All in HC)

[Siniri]

I nearly got rid of the "base bet" to cover the Fed Bonnie safety, but I figured 75% was safe enough, especially since Bonnie looked really week (Fed was a real threat). Kicking myself for getting greedy for that extra 4:10...

[Pickles]

Same here. I thought briefly about covering the Fed/Bonnie, but I was in a hurry, and didn't want to mess with it. Ah well. I was bound to bust sometime soon, as I had a streak of 12 days without busting.

[Siniri]

I just wish I'd written it as an alternative for Blue; he might have gone the more conservative route and won 49:10 instead of busting (if he had time to bet today... I hope he didn't.)

Bets based on my system:
P(8:10-84:10): 52%
EV: 1.66-1.76

Bets:
(Ed, Fed, Fair) x Scurvy x Goo x Luck
Ed x Young x Goo x Luck
Ed x Scurvy x Goo x Orvinn
Ed x Scurvy x (Peg, Luck)
Ed x (Capn, Young) x Luck
Fed x Scurvy x Luck

Honestly, though, any pirate could win Lagoon and HC, and I don't see a way to cover all the possibilities safely. Since I'm in it for the long haul, I went ahead and bet... but you may want to skip if you're averse to losing NP.

[Pickles]

(Ed, Fed, Fair) x Scurvy x Goo x Luck
Ed x Young x Luck
Ed x Young x Goo x Luck
Ed x Capn x Luck
Ed x Scurvy x Peg
Ed x Scurvy x (Fran, Bonnie) x Luck
Ed x Scurvy x Goo x Orvinn

Meh. Not sure how I feel about them, but there they are.

ETA: Busted. Covered Young, covered Peg, but not together. Ah well...

[Blue]

I just wish I'd written it as an alternative for Blue; he might have gone the more conservative route and won 49:10 instead of busting (if he had time to bet today... I hope he didn't.)

I did not have the opportunity to bet yesterday/today.

However, never feel bad if any bets do not work out. It is betting after all - Nothing is ever guaranteed, and not every day will have an upside.

[Siniri]

I also busted yesterday. Had I placed the top 10 bets in my system, I'd have gotten 182:10 with Ed x Young x Peg, but that bet only had a 1% chance of winning, and my overall chance of winning was too low with that set. Ah, well.

New bets:
P(8:10-120:10): 74%
EV: 2.40-3.25

Bets:
goo x (fran, scurvy, fed) x ed x buck
goo x scurvy x ed x tail
goo x scurvy x bonnie x buck
goo x (fran, scurvy, fed) x buck
goo x (fran, scurvy) x tail

Looks even better than yesterday... but look how yesterday turned out.

[Pickles]

Mine are potentially a bit more of a long shot. Guess we'll see. I don't like it when the EV goes over 3. It tends to mean a bust for me. So...I took a few out and changed things up a bit.

Goo x Scurvy x (All in TI) x Buck
Goo x (Scurvy, Fran) x Tail
Goo x (Fed, Fran) x Buck
Fed x Tail
Ned x Scurvy x Buck

ETA: 16:10. Not the best, but at least some profit!

[Siniri]

24:10

At 136:60 for the month so far, even despite the last two days of busts.

New bets:
P(8:10-84:10): 63%
EV: 1.48-2.20

Bets:
Goo x (Black, Buck) x Fran
Goo x (Fed, Buck) x Peg
Goo x Fed x (Luck, Fran)
Goo x Fed x (Luck, Fran) x Bonnie
Goo x Buck x Fran x Bonnie
Goo x Fed x Fran x Ed

[Blue]

Got 'em in today

Goo luck all!

[Siniri]

36:10. Blue managed to skip the busts and hit the good days!

[Pickles]

Bah. Had to get my bets in at the last minute, and they weren't so hot. Busted. Ah well. Hoping to get mine in tomorrow morning. Company in town = craziness.

[Blue]

Sweet! 36:10, and I even remembered to collect my winning this afternoon as well. (I set a meeting reminder on my calendar. Granted it was for 15:30 NST this afternoon and I didn't get around to it until 18:00... But hey, i got it.. )

Call it complete dumb luck that I failed to place bets on the bad days. I guess working far too much has its advantages?

[Siniri]

P(8:10-44:10): 89% (P(8:10)=19%, P(0:10)=11%, P(12+:10)=70%)
EV: 1.34-1.69

Bets:
(Goo, Fran) x (Buck, Squire, Capn)
Goo x (all in Lagoon) x Buck

I feel like HH is actually fairly safe, so I wanted to skip all the double safeties and the Goo-Capn safety in favor of covering Goo x Buck x (all in TI), but I followed my system instead. If you want to go riskier... (If you don't want to lose any NP on the Fran single safety, you could cover Fran x Buck x (all in Lagoon), but you'd have to drop four other bets to do it. Anyone could win in any of the 3 booster arenas... See previous alternative for which 4 bets I recommend dropping. To me, it's not worth "wasting" 4 bets to avoid an 8:10 partial loss.)